Thursday, August 13, 2009

FIBA Asia Quarters: RP vs. Jordan (Miracle or Massacre?)

The Fatigue Factor:

+ Wright has logged in a total of 180 minutes or an average of 30 minutes per game. Considering they have been blowing out teams left and right, this came as a surprise. + Four other players average 118+ minutes per game; i would like to believe this is their best five (Abaas, Daghlas, Idaais and Soobszokov) + Four other players at around 15 minutes per game

+ Miller leads the team in total minutes (141) for an average of 23.5. We know why, Helterbrand is playing injured. + Not too far are Baguio (129), Thoss (131) and Dillinger (115) + After that we have a six players who are playing in the 90-100 minutes range (15-20 minutes per game)

What does this tell us?
Jordan has an 8~9 man rotation and relies most of the time on Wright (as if we did not know that yet; Wright in action vs. China below, image courtesy of FIBA.COM) and the starters. Their relievers does not command big minutes normally and is not expected to

The Philippines meanwhile likes to use most of its players: a 10 man rotation which scatters the minutes around. Even Japeth who has contributed in the past is the 11th man--- injury or not, Yeng is adamant that he scatter the minutes to all contributors to avoid burnout from anyone.
Ultimately, the numbers won't matter as the adrenaline rush tomorrow would be off the roof--- after all, this could be their team's final crucial game. BUT at the end of the day t
hese well-conditioned athletes will feel the pressure and will feel a bit of fatigue as this is their 7th game in 9 days and the first game of the afternoon to boot. Fatigue factor, i think we can have the advantage if we can put the pressure on Jordan early--- and often--- on both ends. If they are going to score, make sure we make them work hard for it. A hard foul here and there is also an option, just to make them feel that we are there and we won't go away. On defense, you attack their offensive players. Wright and Abbaas they comprise about 1/3 of the production of the team (213 of 523 points) and their starters (or players with starter minutes) score 350+ of the 523 points, that's more than half the production.

Let them, force them to use their bench. Tire out the key players. Even as we do the opposite: scattered production majority of the game then, with an unknown player stepping up once again either in the 3rd or the 4th.
They have quality players no doubt about that; even higher quality than us. But we have the quantity. Average probably in international ball but could very well get us over the top with excellent team play.

Let's see if i have time to analyze all other stats. But this just in: i want to believe in miracles. RP by 3 points.